Will All 12 of These States Legalize Gay Marriage in 2013-2014?

Ned Flaherty of Marriage Equality USA wrote a comprehensive article about why he believes we will see 12 new marriage equality states within the next two years:

The next 12 states where legalization is underway are known, and the order in which they're finishing is now predictable. By the end of 2014, these next 12 states will join the 10 other jurisdictions that already have full marriage equality: Connecticut, District of Columbia, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Vermont, and Washington. At that point, 45% of America's citizens will live in the 22 states where lawmakers, courts, and/or voters decided to issue same-gender civil marriage licenses.

How did the order in which states are adopting marriage equality become predictable? Each state's rank is affected by 9 key factors: neighboring states, LGBT population, current law, state constitution, voters, lawmakers, governors, litigation, and ballot questions. No single factor, by itself, guarantees success or assures failure; but when the 9 factors are analyzed together, after adjustments for legislative calendars and ballot timing, the national road map emerges.

All 12 states have as many as four neighbor states with same-gender couples, and most already have a back-of-the-bus form of couple recognition such as domestic partnership or civil union, so voters already have proof that marriage equality brings no negative results. In all 12 of these states, pluralities of voters already support same-gender marriage, and in all but a couple of states, majorities support it. In most of these states, there is no constitutional ban, but even in those states that have one, most voters now want it repealed, or a lawsuit is about to strike it down, or, as in California, it's both unpopular on the street, and is losing in court. Most of these states also have precedent-setting lawsuits underway, most of which are approaching conclusion, so in some states the courts may be able to achieve marriage equality before the lawmakers can enact it.

Flaherty then goes through a state-by-state analysis about why each one (Illinois, Rhode Island, Delaware, New Jersey, Minnesota, Hawaii, Michigan, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and California) will soon be marriage equality states.

I'm not sure I agree with all of them (Hawaii, Michigan, and New Mexico, to name three); but it's an interesting read.